Geopolitics

OPEC+ has agreed in principle to keep its December oil output targets unchanged, three people familiar with the matter told Reuters on Oct. 31, ahead of a Sunday online meeting of seven core members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.

USGS published an official release on Sat Oct 31, 9:02 PM CT: Magnitude 6.0 earthquake strikes 58 km SSE of Shima, Japan, USGS says.

Israel's two Arab-led parties, the Joint List and Ra'am, are expected to recommend former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot as prime minister, according to Jafar Farah, director of the Mossawa Centre and a former Joint List candidate, speaking to The Telegraph.

Reuters reported on Sat Oct 31, 8:20 PM CT, unconfirmed by other outlets so far: Taiwan says China harassing shipping with east coast patrol.

BBC reported on Sat Oct 31, 12:53 PM CT, unconfirmed by other outlets so far: Ukrainian evacuees reunite with family after years trapped in Russia-occupied city.

U.S. Embassy warns of a credible threat of a mass casualty event at Moscow's Tsaritsyno Museum-Reserve today.

CNBC reported on Sat Oct 31, 8:47 AM CT, unconfirmed by other outlets so far: Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran aimed at restarting direct U.S.-Iran negotiations, source says.

The Trump administration has reportedly warned Gulf allies to prepare for short, intense US strikes on Iran as early as November 4, one day after the midterms, according to MS NOW.

BBC reported on Fri Oct 30, 5:11 PM CT, unconfirmed by other outlets so far: G20 'family photo' cancelled after protests over presence of Russian minister.

Tankers are what long-range strikes run on.

It comes the same day a Houthi ballistic missile aimed at southern Saudi Arabia was intercepted and Iranian state media reported a fourth tanker hit by a mine in the Strait of

Same afternoon, Iranian reports say a fourth tanker accused of breaking IRGC rules blew up in the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent settled at $117.64.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard says its air defenses shot down and seized a US MQM-170 reconnaissance drone over Qeshm Island, per Iranian state TV.

Pakistan's military says it is "cautiously optimistic" about mediating between the US and Iran, but warns of "powerful spoilers," after army chief Asim Munir's second trip to Tehran this month.

The US State Department cleared a possible $2.1 billion sale of PAC-3 MSE Patriot missiles to Ukraine, hours after Zelensky said Russia fired 17 ballistic missiles at Ukraine's energy system overnight.

A vessel was struck by an unknown projectile 40 nautical miles south of Iran's Lavan Island, the UK maritime agency UKMTO said.

It fits what officials told Axios this morning: the push on Iran is economic pressure for now, with strikes floated for after the midterms.

The Trump administration has awarded contracts for nearly 41 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, completing a massive oil exchange meant to curb energy prices after the war with Iran, per Bloomberg.

Russia now plans to keep its ban on most diesel exports through January 2027, a month longer than sources flagged yesterday, while still letting some cargoes flow under an arrangement between Putin and Trump, Bloomberg reports.

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov says Moscow and Washington have begun coordinating dates for Russia-US-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi, expected in November.

The Saudi-led coalition says it intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile the Houthis fired toward southern Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Civil Defence says the danger has passed in Khamis Mushait.

On Thursday, a small boat pulled up to the tanker Louise 1 near Hormuz and fixed two explosives to its hull.

The tanker hit in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday was the Panama-flagged Louise 1, and maritime security sources told Reuters it was struck with limpet mines, the first successful use of them since the US war with Iran began in February.

In a Rossiya 24 interview clip spreading today, he says of Ukraine's occupied regions: "This is not their territory, this is the territory of historical Russia."

US officials say yesterday's 20+ person Iran meeting focused on a blockade and economic pressure, not strikes, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.

China's commerce ministry says it firmly opposes the FCC's vote to bar Chinese labs from testing electronics sold in the US, and warns of "additional necessary countermeasures" if Washington keeps going.